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Total Vehicle Sales According to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA), total vehicle sales rose by 3.3%% when sales in June 2013 are compared to those recorded in June 2012. When sales in June 2013 are compared to sales in May 2013, a drop of 1% is evident. The graphs show the close correspondence in the…
Transfer Duty Paid Transfer duty is payable when existing dwellings are purchased (on new houses, VAT is payable). Therefore, the cyclical movement in this particular tax can be regarded as a good proxy for the well-being of the residential property market. To determine real trends, one needs to adjust the nominal values for house price inflation and for changes to the…
Transfer duty is payable when existing dwellings are purchased (on new houses, VAT is payable). Therefore, the cyclical movement in this particular tax can be regarded as a good proxy for the well-being of the residential property market. To determine real trends, one needs to adjust the nominal values for house price inflation and for changes to the rate of…
The revenue raised by the Fiscus from Transfer Duty Paid is a reflection of the well-being of the residential property market.  This is the case because transfer duty is gathered by conveyancers (on behalf of the Receiver of Revenue) when existing houses are bought and sold (new houses are subject to VAT). To assist middle-class people to purchase a home,…
These data include both voluntary and compulsory liquidations of construction companies during the period 1962 to 2011. The accompanying graph has shaded areas that represent the upswing phases in the overall business cycle. Observe that, in most cases, the numbers of liquidations drop during growth periods and rise during economic recessions. However, as liquidations can take a while to be…
Cement sales for October 2011                   Cement sales in OCT 2011 were 10.3% higher than in OCT 2010 (with equal trading days).   On a year-on-year basis, the (smoothed) Annual Percentage Change was +6%.   This graph shows the long-term trend.   The next graph compare the annual percentage change in cement…
Vehicle Sales & Transfer Duty November 2011.                         Total vehicle sales were 19% higher in Oct 2011, compared to Oct 2010.  Compared to Sep 2011, they were 4% lower.   The (smoothed) annual percentage change of vehicle sales is currently 15%, and is a mirror image of plans passed,…
Leading Economic Indicators: Vehicle Sales & Transfer Duty                 Total vehicle sales were 30% higher in Sep 2011, compared to Sep 2010.  Compared to Aug 2011, they were 5.7% higher, with purchasers by car rental companies responsible for a large part of this fine performance. The cumulative 12 month moving total in Sep…
Underneath is our interpretation of buoyant vehicle sales figures and poor transfer duty paid figures. The latter reflects the poor state of the residential property industry. These divergent trends (i.e. positive in the case of vehicles sold, and negative in the case of the residential property market) suggest that consumers are buying vehicles, but not houses.  According to banking economists, the…
Stats SA Building Statistics July 2011                             Vehicle sales show a V-shaped recovery, with a U-shaped revival in the case of residential buildings.   The trend in the cyclical movements correspond closely; vehicle sales are about 16% higher than a year ago, with residential only 2% higher.…
Transfer Duty July 2011                           In nominal terms, May 2011 data were better than in April 2011, but the property market is still suffering from lack of mortgage finance from banks.   In real terms, the trend is virtually sideways.   The annual percentage change is nudging the…
Cement Sales July 2011                         Cement sales were about 10% higher in June 2011 than in May 2011. The shape of the trend suggests that a trough in the cycle is at hand.   The year-on-year percentage change was zero in June 2011, suggesting that cement sales could grow…
Leading Economic Indicators: Vehicle Sales & House Plans Passed: February 2011           Vehicle sales rose from 38 071 in Jan 2010 to 45 135 in Jan 2011, a solid performance. The percentage movement in vehicle sales is conforming to pattern and is expected to moderate during the year because of the higher base recorded in 2010.
An Update of STATS SA data & Other Selected Leading Economic Indicators: December 2010           This comparison reflects “big ticket items” – vehicle sales and house plans passed – both are strongly cyclical and both are sensitive to interest rate movements.  Belatedly, the residential sector is improving. The cyclical movements correspond closely; vehicle sales are almost…